A recent survey of Black voters in Florida’s Tampa Bay region shows significant differences in the opinions of men versus women when it comes to this year’s presidential election. A closer examination of age groups reveals stark differences in the predictions and candidate preferences of younger Black men, compared to their elders.
The six-question survey was circulated among attendees at a panel discussion titled A Candid Conversation on Why Black Men Do & Don’t Vote, held on September 17 at the Woodson African American Museum of Florida and accessible via Zoom.
Both the event and survey were by the Power of the Vote Collective (POTV Collective), “a non-partisan, non-endorsing get-out-the-vote campaign, collectively powered by community organizations toward the goal of maximizing Black voter participation in Pinellas County, Florida, for the 2024 general election.”
Analysis of survey responses was done by Urban Market Analytics, a division of Power Broker Media Group.
Below is a summary of findings, with notes on how results compare to two recent national polls – an August 2024 poll by Pew Research and a September 2024 poll of Black voters in battleground states by Howard University’s Initiative on Public Opinion.
Men are less inclined to support Kamala Harris
It was no surprise that the POTV survey revealed a Black gender gap in support for Kamala Harris for president, with women supporting Harris at a higher rate than men. Several national polls have spotlighted the trend.
What stood out, however, was the size of the gap. Pew’s recent survey showed a 7-point Black gender gap (80% of men and 87% of women favored Harris), while Howard’s poll found a 2-point gap (81% of men and 83% of women favored Harris).
The recent POTV survey shows a much wider gulf between the two groups, with an incredible 96% of Black women supporting Harris, compared with 79% of Black men (a 17-point gap).
The unusually high rate of support from Black women likely reflects audience make-up on September 17. Harris’ sorority sisters and sister Greeks (i.e., members of the other Divine 9 sororities) were about one-third of the female attendees polled, which would tend to skew results in Harris’ favor as the Divine 9 appears to be backing Harris at a higher rate than African American as a whole.
Nevertheless, recent events and data suggest that the local Black gender gap in Harris support may be about as large as national polls find.
A survey of Black super voters in Florida in late June found that 87% of Black men and 93% of Black women favored Harris, a 6-point gap.
When the September 17 all Black male panel was asked whether racism or sexism will play a role in Black men’s vote this year, several men acknowledged the influence of sexism as a factor in Black (and white) men’s reactions to Harris. See the segment here.
On September 20, when three of the same panelists appeared on WMNF’s The Skinny, a caller named Bobby from Bradenton, Florida, shared his thoughts on why he and other young Black men are supporting Donald Trump: “They’ve seen the results of his policies from 2016 to 2020 and they’ve seen the policies of the Joe Biden, Kamala Harris administration for the last four years and Black men do not like what they see.” (To listen in at the link above, the show segment starts at minute marker 27:30, and Bobby’s comments start at 51:22)
Bobby also raised the issue of Harris’ prosecution of Black men – a topic that went viral following comedian DL Hughley’s televised apology to Harris at the Democratic National Convention for his own misperception about Harris’ prosecutorial record.
Harris has far less support among younger Black men
The POTV poll, like the Howard poll, found that older Black men support Kamala Harris at nearly the same rate as Black women as a whole.
However, support for Harris falls off a cliff among younger Black men. The Howard poll had support for Harris at 88% among Black men 50 and older versus 72% for those under 50 (a 16-point gap). Though the Pew poll did not report results by gender, it surfaced a decided age gap: 92% of Black voters 50 or older favored Harris, compared to 75% of those under 50 (a 17-point gap).
The recent POTV survey showed support for Harris rising with age. Harris had the support of 93% of Black men 65 and older; 79% of men 45 to 64; and 64% of men younger than 45.
Little joy for Trump; third-party and write-ins more popular
Despite the relatively light support for Harris among younger Black men, POTV survey results did not give the Trump camp cause for celebration.
The survey showed only 5% of Black men inclined to support the former president, while 12% are supporting candidates other than Harris and Trump, and 5% chose not to answer the question, which may include some undecideds.
This deviates from national polls, which consistently show sizable shares of Black men supporting Trump (17% in the Pew survey and 12% in the Howard poll).
Does this mean that Trump’s support among younger Black men is weaker in this part of the country? Not necessarily.
POTV survey responses may have been influenced by the palpable support for Harris at the September 17 event, possibly causing Trump supporters to hesitate about going on record in support of Trump (though the survey was anonymous) or influencing Trump leaners to change their minds.
Another factor was the age composition of the September 17 audience, which skewed older. What little support Trump had in the POTV survey was in the 25-34 year old age group.
Mixed predictions on Black male turnout; younger men more pessimistic
The POTV survey asked event attendees to predict whether this year’s Black male turnout will be higher, lower or the same as in the 2020 election, based on what they are hearing and reading about Black men’s interest in the election.
Similar ratios of Black men and women predicted higher Black male turnout in this year’s election (48% and 46% respectively).
However, a significant portion of Black men predict that their peers’ turnout rate will be the same or lower than in 2020 (43%).
A closer look at men’s responses reveals that younger men are decidedly more pessimistic about Black men’s interest in the election. Over one-third (36%) of men under age 45 forecast that the group’s turnout will be lower this year than in 2020, which was more than 5 times the share of men 65+ who predict the group’s turnout will fall.
Optimism appears to increase by age. Among the oldest group below – Black men aged 65+ – nearly two-thirds (64%) say the group’s turnout will be higher this year which was 1.8 times the share of Black men under 45 who felt the same (36%).
About the Power of the Vote Survey
The Power of the Vote survey was a non-scientific poll open to the 130 individuals who attended a September 17, 2024 hybrid panel discussion titled A Candid Conversation on Why Black Men Do & Don’t Vote. Survey respondents were not screened or selected; nor was their voting history confirmed. Given the method by which invitations were extended (i.e., to the member databases of event host organizations), a lion’s share of survey respondents were likely voters. To watch the entire conversation, go to Power Broker media Group on YouTube.
A majority of attendees live and/or work in Pinellas and Hillsborough counties, the two largest of the eight counties that comprise Florida’s Tampa Bay region.
Surveys were completed by 78 respondents.
The Comparison Polls
Pew Research Center, September 2024, “In Tied Presidential Race, Harris and Trump Have Contrasting Strengths, Weaknesses” (Based on registered voters, polled August 26-September 2, 2024) In Tied Presidential Race, Harris and Trump Have Contrasting Strengths, Weaknesses | Pew Research Center
Howard Initiative on Public Opinion, September 2024, “Black American Battleground Voters Poll” (Based on likely voters, polled September 4-11, 2024) Black swing-state voters overwhelmingly back Harris — with key divides on age and gender, Howard poll shows (nbcnews.com)
Power Broker Media Group/Urban Market Analytics, July 24, 2024, “New Poll: Black Floridians on Kamala Harrris and Whether the Nation is Ready to Elect a Black Woman as President” New Poll: Black Floridians on Kamala Harris and Whether Nation is Ready to Elect a Black Woman as President – Power Broker Magazine
About Respondents to the Power of the Vote Survey
Click here for demographic tables on survey respondents.
